Nigeria’s economy is gradually emerging from a challenging reform period and is now being repositioned for stronger and more sustainable growth, according to Segun Alebiosu, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of First Bank of Nigeria, and Dr. Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank.
Speaking at the FirstBank 2026 Nigerian Economic Outlook session, Alebiosu said the impact of ongoing economic reforms is becoming increasingly evident in price stability, investor confidence and sectoral resilience, following an initial phase of tough adjustments.
He noted that expectations for 2026 are high, as the most difficult aspects of the reform process appear to be behind the country, allowing the benefits to accelerate in the year ahead.
“The reform process is gaining momentum. We have gone through the hardest phase, and we are now beginning to see tangible benefits across the economy,” Alebiosu said.
He described Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic experience as one of adaptation rather than collapse, despite currency realignments, inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainty.
“Even amid macroeconomic pressures, currency adjustments, shifting trade patterns and global uncertainty, the Nigerian economy has continued to show resilience. Innovation, enterprise and reform are taking root, signalling an economy that is repositioning rather than weakening,” he added.
In his keynote address, titled “The Great Recalibration: Mastering Resilience in an Era of Asynchronous Growth,” Dr. Kale said Nigeria is beginning to benefit from a global environment in which growth, inflation and capital flows are no longer moving in tandem, creating both challenges and opportunities for reforming economies.
He explained that the global economy has entered an era of asynchronous movement, where policy responses and investment strategies are no longer uniform, and where resilience, credibility and adaptability increasingly determine success.
According to Kale, Nigeria is already seeing positive outcomes from tighter monetary policy, foreign exchange reforms and improving trade dynamics, with inflation easing and confidence slowly returning to the markets.
He said the country is experiencing sustained disinflation, greater foreign exchange stability, an improving trade balance and renewed market confidence, noting that the first monetary policy easing in five years marked a critical turning point and anchored the outlook for 2026.
Kale added that headline inflation has fallen sharply from earlier peaks, supported by improved foreign exchange liquidity and easing supply-side constraints, while forex unification has enhanced transparency and reduced volatility.
He noted that market-driven exchange rate formation has replaced administrative pricing, strengthening investor trust, with monthly forex volatility now trending below four per cent due to stronger inflows and improved liquidity management.
On economic growth, Kale said Nigeria is more diversified than commonly assumed, with the services sector now contributing the largest share of output, even as oil remains vital for foreign exchange earnings and fiscal revenues.
He explained that services such as payments, digital trade, ICT, logistics, wholesale and retail activities are increasingly driving growth momentum across the economy.
Looking ahead, Alebiosu said Nigeria’s competitiveness will be shaped by demographics, technology adoption, climate priorities and deeper regional trade integration, particularly under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
He stressed that sustained success will depend on disciplined reforms, investment in human capital, scalable infrastructure and strong financial intermediation.
Alebiosu reaffirmed FirstBank’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s next phase of growth, citing the institution’s long history of navigating economic cycles.
“At FirstBank, resilience is not a slogan but a legacy spanning over 130 years. We remain committed to being a trusted, capital-strong and digitally enabled institution, positioned to partner Nigeria’s journey into its next phase of growth,” he said.