The United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the broader OPEC+ group next month, ending nearly 60 years of membership in a move analysts say could reshape global oil markets.
The decision, which takes effect on May 1, 2026, follows what Emirati authorities described as a comprehensive review of national energy strategy and production capacity.
The UAE said it’s move would allow the country greater flexibility to respond to global energy demand and align output with its long-term economic priorities.
“This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity,” the government said, noting that it was driven by national interest and evolving market conditions.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and has since been one of the group’s key producers. Its departure will reduce the cartel’s membership and is widely viewed as a significant setback for the alliance, which coordinates oil production to influence global prices.
Analysts say the exit could weaken OPEC’s cohesion, with some warning it may signal broader structural challenges within the group.
“With the UAE leaving, OPEC loses a significant portion of its production capacity and one of its more compliant members,” energy analysts noted, raising concerns about the cartel’s future influence.
The development comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly disruptions linked to conflict affecting oil supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Global institutions, including the World Bank, have warned that the crisis could push energy prices significantly higher, with potential knock-on effects on food and fuel costs worldwide.
Despite the immediate supply constraints, economists say the UAE’s long-term strategy is focused on increasing production capacity, having invested heavily in expanding its oil output in recent years.
Industry experts suggest that while the exit may not have an immediate impact on supply due to ongoing disruptions, it could lead to increased production and greater market volatility in the future.
“The UAE has long sought to expand output beyond OPEC quotas. Outside the group, it will have more freedom to do so,” analysts said.
The move also places additional pressure on major producers such as Saudi Arabia to maintain cohesion within the remaining OPEC members, as concerns grow that other countries could reconsider their positions.
Founded in 1960, OPEC has played a central role in global energy markets by coordinating oil production among member states to stabilise prices and ensure steady supply.
The UAE’s withdrawal marks one of the most significant shifts in the organisation in recent years and underscores changing dynamics in global energy policy and geopolitics.